Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. We need election reform.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. I quit voting once out of the union.. It was easy. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. He cares about the American people.. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Theres significant variability among them though. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. I think all politicians are crooks. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. We were as far down to five cooks last year. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Please read our comments policy before commenting. He is his own worst enemy.. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. "If. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. I got a life. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . We dont want it, she said. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. . Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? Medicare is becoming a joke. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Its gone, Jacobs said. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Republican Gov. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Vance. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. They need to take care of the older people here. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. She shook her head at the high price of gas. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. 'I Should Start Voting'. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. He isnt so sure about Biden. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. This includes personalizing content and advertising. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Jim Hoft. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. Blaine County. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Nothing is free, Hawker said. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. At least Biden is honest, he said. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. And its never going to come back.. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. I trust the system implicitly, he said. bellwether. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. That is, until this year. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here..